Prince isn't nearly as fast as he thinks he is.
Because of the curse of Coastal Geography and elitism, the NL Central division gets screwed. Instead of 5 teams fighting for the playoff spot, the powers that be thought it would be good to have 6 beat each other into submission. “Who cares?” they say, “After all, it’s only the Midwest.
We’ll show them, boys, we’ll show them.
Barring some of the worst luck in the world (and we are talking about the Midwest so it could happen), the Chicago Cubs will win the World Series in 2009. There will be no curse of the goat this year; every goat within 200 miles will be slaughtered by September (although the economy and need to eat may have something to do with that). Chicago has a solid rotation and have room to pick up another pitcher, they absolutely stole reliever Aaron Heilman from the Mariners in the off-season (what idiots), and although they lost closer Kerry Wood to free agency, they actually have two closers with hard-throwing Carlos Marmol and new acquisition Kevin Gregg. The lineup is nasty – if not aging. Alfonso Soriano, Derek Lee, Aramis Ramirez and Milton Bradley are all on the wrong side of 30, but they can mash and on a windy day can give a pitchers’ ERA a breast augmentation. Add to the mix Rookie of the Year Geovany Soto and speedy Ryan Theriot, and you have an offense that doesn’t quit. There won’t be any Lou Piniella meltdowns because of it…no, there will be. That guy’s good for at least one instance of diamond rage each year, if only just to practice.
Players to watch: Pitcher Rich Harden and outfielder Milton Bradley. Both are injury prone, but both make a team exponentially better when healthy.
Fantasy nerds: Play Carlos Zambrano in the spring, you’ll be wearing the bling. Zambrano in the summer, could you be any dumber?
Rufus predicts: 102-60
Each year, Rufus asks himself, “How does St. Louis keep doing it?” By all rights, they should have crashed and burned the last couple years. Yet, they’ve been constantly near the top of the division for years. This year, they’ll MacGyver together another season with spare parts in the outfield, retreads in the infield and porcelain dolls on the mound. Whatever they do, it works. Yet, it’s hard to predict the Cardinals to keep defying the statistical mean. Rufus thinks this year it will catch up with them. Not to start the season, but the swoon will begin around the All-Star break.
Players to watch: Pitcher Chris Carpenter and outfielder Ryan Ludwick. Carpenter hasn’t been healthy for two years, but he’s been great this spring. Ludwick’s past doesn’t support his present studness. Yet, if he keeps acting like someone else, the Cards will score a lot.
Fantasy nerds: Outfielder Rick Ankiel should have a monster year in both home runs and RBI. Here’s hoping flamethrower Jason Motte emerges as the closer. He’ll deliver elite fantasy closer numbers if he does.
Rufus predicts: 80-82
The Houston Astros have a steak to them, whether it’s a losing streak or an amazing winning streak. Consistency is something they just don’t do. But with their lineup, they should be consistently good. Combine mashers like Lance Berkman and Carlos Lee with guys who can be aided by the small, formerly Enron-sponsored ballpark, such as Miguel Tejada, Hunter Pence and Pudge Rodriguez and you get runs scored in bunches. The pitching staff is lead by stud Roy Oswalt, but the rest are miracles of modern science. Mike Hampton is the number two starter, and the rest are two pitches away from a long DL stint. They’ll have a good year, but not good enough to outpace the Cubs. And considering 6 of their 8 starters in the field are over 30, you’d think that Houston will be a place of mass exodus in July if they hit a losing patch early.
Players to watch: Hampton and outfielder Michael Bourn. The amount of runs that Houston could score can make their weak pitching moot, but the run-machine-in-waiting Michael Bourn needs to get on base. Assuming Bourn crashes and burns, Hampton will need to stay healthy and pitch well to keep Houston in the playoff race.
Fantasy nerds: Bourn can steal an insane amount of bases. Regardless of his batting average, he’ll take care of all your steals in one fell swoop.
Rufus predicts: 81-81
How long will it be before the Milwaukee Brewers will be forced by the political correctness police to change their mascot to something less offensive, like the Retailers? Rufus can’t help but find it ironic that most players who play for the Brewers will be asked for their I.D. every time they want a beer until they turn 39 because apparently alcohol is such an evil in the world that you have to look like you’re about to die before you can have one no questions asked. And the Brewers will be drinking a lot this year to get them through the disappointment of this season. Their bats swing and miss too often, their pitching staff is minus two aces, and their bullpen is in shambles, especially after the preseason injury to new closer Trevor Hoffman. They might score a lot of runs because they play in a small ballpark, but they’re in for a long, long season – with no trading pieces to get them more prospects.
Players to watch: 1B Prince Fielder. He’s the most feared hitter in this lineup, and at age 24, starting his 4th full season in the majors, Fielder is on the verge of exploding or flaming out. Either way, Milwaukee will still lose a lot of games.
Fantasy nerds: Pitcher Yovani Gallardo and outfielder Corey Hart. Hart is ready to hit .300, crack 25 HR, steal 25 bases, score 100 runs and knock in 100 runs. Gallardo is a strike thrower who should do well in the first half of the season.
Rufus predicts: 72-90
The Cincinnati Reds have had some bad luck in recent years. Their new ballpark has made them into an offensive machine, but they couldn’t cash in those chips with Ken Griffey Jr., Adam Dunn, Austin Kearns and Brandon Philips – the first three no longer play for the Reds. Now, the Reds have changed from a team that can crack a lot of home runs to a team that drives the ball and steal bases. Will that work in a small ballpark? Stay tuned. Rufus thinks it probably will work. And for once, they have a pitching staff with potential. They had to trade Josh Hamilton to get one of them, Edinson Volquez, but they have a staff, top to bottom, that can strike guys out and pitch deep into games. Even with a weak-hitting team, on paper, the Reds will emerge as the surprise team of the Central.
Players to watch: Outfielder Jay Bruce and 3B Edwin Encarnacion. For the Big Red Machine to produce runs, they’ll need to have plenty of oil. Bruce and Encarnacion in the 5th and 6th spots will make this machine run or break. Count on it to run.
Fantasy nerds: Volquez had an amazing first half last year before burning out. Expect him to go the distance this year.
Rufus predicts: 86-76
More than any other team, the Pittsburgh Pirates have been the whipping boy of the National League. Luckily, San Diego has devolved to take their place. Pittsburgh still has a really long way to go before they get to .500, but there is that glimmer of hope, that glimmer most can see in March but soon realize it’s the sun that they haven’t seen for three months. Pittsburgh always has a number of good players, and this year it’s Nate McLouth and Ryan Doumit. But often the rookies and prospects surrounding them have typical rookie and prospect seasons. The Pirates won’t score many runs, and they will have a tough time preventing them, but they will be better than San Diego.
Players to watch: 1B Adam LaRoche. He’s been one of the worst first-half players for a while now, and one of the best second-half players in baseball. He has to put together a full year for the Pirates to have any hope of staying in the playoff race.
Fantasy nerds: Don’t be afraid of McLouth and Doumit. McLouth has the speed and power and Doumit has the average and power to help you out.
Rufus predicts: 70-92
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